PELAGICLABS · METHODOLOGY
Assumptions on the table.
We publish the model assumptions, validation boundaries, and uncertainty handling. Judge the system on its merits.
TRANSPARENCY
Not magic. Not black-box. Not overclaiming.
What we don't do
Not magic scores
No vague 'good today' numbers from a black box. Every score decomposes into the signals behind it.
Not overclaiming
No 100% accuracy claims. Boundaries are published per species and per region.
Not hidden sources
No unnamed 'proprietary data'. Inputs trace to NOAA, Copernicus, NDBC, Sentinel, and documented research.
What we do
Assumptions published
Model assumptions sit on this page, in plain language, next to the forecasts they drive.
Uncertainty shown
Every call carries a confidence level and the reasoning behind it.
Validated regionally
Calibration is per spot and per region, not one global knob. A pike lake is not a sea bass coast.
BIOLOGY
Biology models with sources attached.
Species behavior assumptions trace back to documented sources and regional validation work.
| Species | Status | Accuracy | Data points | Temp range | Depth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European SeabassDicentrarchus labrax | Validated | 84% | 42,000+ | 12-18°C | 0-100m |
| Atlantic CodGadus morhua | Validated | 79% | 38,000+ | 4-10°C | 0-600m |
| European PollackPollachius pollachius | Validated | 76% | 28,000+ | 8-14°C | 0-200m |
| Northern PikeEsox lucius | Beta | 72% | 15,000+ | 10-20°C | 0-30m |
| Atlantic MackerelScomber scombrus | Validated | 81% | 35,000+ | 8-14°C | 0-200m |
| Brown TroutSalmo trutta | Beta | 68% | 12,000+ | 6-18°C | 0-20m |
PHYSICS
Nearshore physics in production.
Wave guidance accounts for propagation and transformation so the call reflects what happens at the break.
INPUTS
Data sources
- NOAA WaveWatch III: Global spectral wave model, 0.5 degree resolution
- Copernicus Marine: European regional wave forecasts
- NDBC Buoy Network: Real-time wave height, period, direction
- Sentinel-1 SAR: Ocean surface wind fields
MODEL
Physics model
Spectral wave energy balance equations track swell across the basin:
Where E = spectral energy density, Cg = group velocity, and S terms represent wind input, dissipation, and nonlinear interactions.
CALIBRATION
Local calibration
Each surf spot requires local calibration factors:
- Bathymetry: Shoaling and refraction coefficients
- Exposure: Swell window angles (which swells reach the spot)
- Historical fit: Adjustment from observed vs predicted
VALIDATION
What we publish.
- Per-species accuracy and data volume01
- Per-spot calibration factors02
- Confidence score per call03
- Accuracy boundaries per region04
- Uncertainty quantified per window05